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Crude Oil Analysis: Oil Price Bounce Short-lived

• Oil Bounce Short-lived
• Net Long Oil Positioning Drops to Lowest Since September 2017

For a more in-depth analysis on Oil Prices, check out the Q4 FORECAST FOR OIL

OIL BOUNCE SHORT-LIVED

Yesterday’s bounce back has provided an opportunity for oil bears to reload shorts. The lack of conviction in the rise in oil prices suggests that any increase will be short-lived as markets look to find a floor. As we head to the G20 summit and OPEC meeting, it is likely that there will be increased talk regarding the size of production cuts to be announced for the December 6th OPEC meeting. However, with recent bearish reports surfacing yesterday, where Saudi Arabia are currently pumping oil at a record high of 11.1-11.3mbpd, a large cut to production would be needed to provide a modest lift in oil prices.

NET LONG OIL POSITIONING DROPS TO LOWEST SINCE SEPTEMBER 2017

Given the near 30% plunge in oil prices, money managers have liquidated their long positioning, bringing net longs to the lowest level since September 2017. As net longs continue to remain relatively substantial, this poses a risk for further downside in oil prices.